
11/10/05 - Kissin' Cousins by Eric J Fry "Faithful Rude Awakening readers may have been slightly less shocked than most investors. Back in early August, your editor took a few pot-shots at Toll Brothers' stock
that happened to hit the target." 11/09/05 - Yield Curves
That's Hot! by Eric J Fry "There is no "buy" signal known to man that is more compelling than a mass, simultaneous "sell" recommendation from Wall Street. Knowing this fact, what choice did I have but to write about bonds again?" 11/08/05 -What's Yours is Mine by Eric J Fry "ExxonMobil earns billions of dollars. The Congress spends billions of dollars. These two truths seem to be inspiring Senator Clinton's attempt to divert a few billion dollars from where they are earned to where they are spent." 11/04/05 - Chihuahuas of the Serengeti by Eric J Fry "Asset bubbles are never merely financial; they are the love-children of leveraged speculation and warped perception. Sadly, they cannot survive adversity." 11/01/05 - Scary Stuff by Eric J Fry "We examine some of the factors lending to the vulnerability of today's housing market. Why do these staggering figures seem to be worsening? Does this constitute a 'bubble'? All this and a very scary chart in todays Rude reading."
10/26/05 - Meet the Doctor - Part II by Eric J Fry "Dr. Kurt's insights and opinions are suitable for mature audiences only. The following material may contain scenes, depictions and descriptions of graphic macro-economic content that may be very disturbing." 10/25/05 - Meet the Doctor - Part I by Eric J Fry "Dr. Kurt's insights and opinions are suitable for mature audiences only. The following material may contain scenes, depictions and descriptions of graphic macro-economic content that may be very disturbing." 10/05/05 - Swimming In Crude by Eric J Fry "The average trout is very much like the average investor. It travels in groups and it chases after shiny things." 10/04/05 - E-Day! The Final Chapter by Eric J Fry "Despite debating the consequences of "peak oil" for several days, these guys have failed to exhaust either themselves or their supply of worthwhile investment insights." 09/30/05 - E-Day! Part II by Eric J Fry "We return today with our second and final installment of E-Day! - A spontaneous three-way debate over the state of the world after 'peak oil.'" 09/29/05 - E-Day! Part I by Eric J Fry "If the earth is running out of cheap oil, should we care? Or should we trust that the faceless "they" will find a solution before rising energy costs begin to cramp our cushy American lifestyle?" 09/28/05 - The Cadillac of Beachfront Communities by Eric J Fry "About three years ago, your editor paid a visit to Rancho Santana, a beautiful beachfront development in Nicaragua. He fell in love
with the property, that is
not with any members of the local populace." 09/27/05 - High Cholesterol, Low Home Prices by Eric J Fry "In 1996, Greenspan fretted aloud about the frothy stock market. But by 2000, he was praising a productivity revolution that seemed to validate the elevated share prices of the day. Hhhmmmm
" 09/20/05 - So Long, Dennis Kozlowski
by Eric J Fry "Fare thee well, Dennis Kozlowski. We will miss you. We will miss you each and every day of your 8 1/3 to 25 year sentence
We only regret that we will not have the opportunity to miss you for longer." 09/16/05 - What's An Ouroboros? by Eric J Fry "Soaring commodity prices are taking a big bite out of the profit margins of the very same companies that produce the stuff." 09/14/05 - See Oil Demand!
See Oil Demand Fall! by Eric J Fry "If only the Wall Street Journal would produce a "Weekly Reader" version, we might be reading sentences like these in upcoming editions. We might also be reading sentences like, "See Oil Prices!
See Prices Fall!" 09/09/05 - Katrina Plays, Part II by Eric J Fry "Yesterday afternoon, we dispatched an email to various colleagues, acquaintances and investment gurus to solicit their favorite "Katrina plays." We asked
They answered
" 09/08/05 - Katrina Plays, Part I by Eric J Fry "All last week, while Katrina was visiting misery on hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents, she was also lavishing riches on hundreds of thousands of investors." 09/06/05 - A Time to Rally by Eric Fry This chart shows potential for a strong, although brief, rally. Oh, and our publisher has finally lost his mind 09/02/05 - Thin Asians and Fat Americans by Eric J Fry "The feeding (and fattening) of China will provide opportunities for innumerable companies. The appetite of 1.3 billion individuals is not easily satisfied." 08/26/05 - From Laguna to London by Eric J Fry "Forget the Chinese; we Americans consume plenty of natural resources all by ourselves." 08/19/05 - Inflated Assests by Eric J Fry "The bull market in breast augmentation shows no sign of exhaustion. But the bull market in upscale lodging looks ready to drop a cup size or two." 08/16/05 - Legalized Embezzlement by Eric J Fry "An espresso bar that rarely sells an espresso may represent a kind of aesthetic tragedy, but it is a capitalistic triumph. Just ask Starbucks' shareholders." 08/12/05 - The Thrill Of Boredom by Eric J Fry "Tomorrow morning your New York editor will hop a plane to Colorado, where he hopes to continue perfecting his aptitude for doing nothing
" 08/11/05 - The Silent Killer by Eric J Fry "I'll happily accept a lower return in exchange for much lower volatility," a seasoned stockbroker declared yesterday. 08/05/05 - For Whom The Toll Sells by Eric J Fry "Why are the Toll brothers selling their stock? Are they selling to conduct "personal financial planning?" Or because the housing market is topping out?" 08/04/05 - Golden Opportunities by Eric J Fry "However prudently the U.S. might manage its debts, it is imprudently increasing them, which is not very prudent at all." 08/02/05 - Tan, Don't Burn by Eric J Fry "Buy sunscreen, not Sun Microsystems
Such is the approximate message delivered by several stock market indicators, according to options pro, Jay Shartsis." 07/26/05 - Torn Bottoms And Restful Nights by Eric J Fry "A successful stockbroker, who shares our affinity for low volatility, mentioned an intriguing security to your New York editor last weekend
" 07/22/05 - "Hold" This by Eric J Fry "Rumors of the commodity bull market's demise may be as premature as Wall Street's recent 'Reduce' ratings." 07/15/05 - More Pleasure, Less Pain by Eric J Fry "Oil stocks deliver no lack of thrills, but the ride is hardly serene. Maybe there's a way to make the ride just a little more comfy
without sacrificing the exhilaration." 07/14/05 - Shanghai's New Surprise by Eric J Fry "As Chinese steel production soars, so does demand for all forms of iron - whether that form be 'ore pellets' from Brazil or manhole covers from Shanghai." 07/12/05 - Fun In The Sun by Eric J Fry "Anyone need more evidence that the housing bubble is approaching the terminal stage? Property prices along the New Jersey shore are soaring." 07/08/05 - Pinstriped Psychopaths by Eric J Fry "Some psychopaths occupy a prison cell. Others occupy a corner office. Both are dangerous." 07/05/05 - Honest Money by Eric J Fry "It is hard to find and produce gold, easy to print money. We [gold] bulls take comfort in the geological scarcity of our precious and beloved metal." 07/01/05 - Sadistic Tendencies by Eric J Fry "All the classic leading indicators of future U.S. economic activity are heading in the direction that neither Alan Greenspan nor President Bush has authorized: Down." 06/28/05 - A Booming Chinese Export by Eric J Fry "Last year, China exported 504 million pairs of socks, 73 million cell phones
and 30 million tourists. Wanderlust, it seems, is but one of the many by-products of the flourishing Chinese economy." 06/21/05 - Financial "Trompe L'Oeil" by Eric J Fry "What do Flemish Renaissance painters and exchange traded funds have in common? Both have the capacity to create equally "lifelike" deceptions." 06/17/05 - The After-Life by Eric J Fry "Financial bubbles are mortal organisms. Even though they might seem immortal for a time, they never live forever. The housing bubble will be no different. Are we ready for the after-life?" 06/16/05 - Bird Watching by Eric J Fry "Most of us are sick and tired or reading about the housing bubble, which is why your New York editor has decided to devote ONLY two of this week's columns to the topic." 06/10/05 - All Are Bored! by Eric J Fry "From a podium at the Tony St. Regis hotel in Manhattan yesterday afternoon, corporate insiders from North America's largest railway companies testified to the booming global demand for commodities and industrial products." 06/09/05 - Sell Stocks Also by Eric J Fry "If the bond market is "right," the stock market probably isn't. In which case, share prices might be a shade too high." 06/07/05 - The Deadliest Sin by Eric J Fry "Pope Gregory the Great categorized humanity's most critical foibles as the "Seven Deadly Sins." In the twenty-first century A.D., this editor encourages investors to avoid at least one of these deadly sins: Pride." 06/03/05 - A Cheap Speculation by Eric J Fry "Shortly after putting yesterday's column to bed, futures trader Richard Morrow rang our office to announce, "I'm shorting bonds
I LOVE this trade!" We get all the details here
" 06/02/05 - Sell Bonds
Once More With Feeling by Eric J Fry "Will the interest-rate ballgame end decisively in the ninth inning, or are we in for a tedious, extra-innings affair? Here is why we are sticking around for the long haul
" 06/01/05 - A Bit About Drilling by Eric J Fry"A couple years ago, lowly valued oil-drilling stocks couldn't seem to find any investors. Today, investors can't seem to find any lowly valued drilling stocks
except maybe in Canada
" 05/31/05 - When "No" Means "Yes" by Eric J Fry "As French voters declare "non" to the European Constitution, a slumbering gold market might finally roll out of bed
" 05/27/05 - Mises vs. Marx by Eric J Fry "When the Berlin wall came a-tumblin' down in 1989, very few of us imagined that the world's leading capitalists would later veer toward a subtle version of communism
" 05/24/05 - A Love/Hate Relationship by Eric J Fry "Hedge fund managers hate tech stocks
Is there any better reason to love them? We dispatched our colleague, Hilaire Atlee, to a hedge fund manager's investment conference in Manhattan to gather intelligence. Here are his findings:" 05/19/05 - Dumb And Dumber by Eric J Fry "Justice Litle, editor of one of the top performing commodity newsletters in the business, pitches in with this column about protectionism
" 05/18/05 - Strange Days by Eric J Fry "Is the bull market in commodities a financial "Jim Morrison?" Is it a sensation that flames out as suddenly as it first burst onto the scene? Or is it more likely to be a "Jerry Garcia" - slightly mellower and longer-lasting" 05/17/05 - Houses And Spouses by Eric J Fry "A big problem with both houses and spouses as investments is that neither can be counted on to deliver a reliable short-term profit. Indeed, a short-term commitment to either a house or a spouse can result in a loss of capital" 05/13/05 - Manhandled by Eric J Fry "What is man? Metaphysically, he is "but a breath," according to the writer of Psalms. But Man is also a good indication that the market maybe about to fall
full story to follow
" 03/12/05 - Echoes Of 1998 by Eric J Fry "When GM bonds skidded last week, a few hedge fund managers ended up with tire tracks across their backs
and some nasty injuries
" 05/10/05 - Vehicular Bond Slaughter by Eric J Fry "If GM's investment-grade rating sheds its mortal coil, the entire corporate bond market may suffer a near-death experience, especially the junk bond sector
" 05/06/05 - Fools In Paradise by Eric J Fry "To complete this week's Orange County trifecta, today we contrast the respective trajectories of a master-planned city in California with a large coffee retailer and find these two really aren't that different
" 05/05/05 - Affluenza by Eric J Fry "Warning: A virulent epidemic is sweeping the nation. How many more victims the epidemic might claim is anyone's guess, but suffice to say, the rapid spread of this contagion is a serious national problem" 04/29/05 - The Austrailian Canary by Eric J Fry "Rare though they may be, several asset bubbles are currently frolicking in our midst, according to bubble-tracker Jeremy Grantham. But which does he think is about to pop?" 04/26/05 - Another Annoying Gold Article by Eric J Fry "To all Rude Awakening readers who have endured more than enough bullish stories about gold, we apologize in advance for the next 839 words
" 04/22/05 - Weeping In Private by Eric J Fry "When the going gets tough, the tough weep in private
well hidden from public view. Your New York editor has been hearing of many "rugged," seasoned hedge fund managers crying into their vichyssoise" 04/15/05 - Nothing About Breasts by Eric J Fry "No breasts in today's edition, just a slaughterhouse: grisly, chilling and littered with the carcasses of herding animals
" 04/14/05 - Arm Wrestling by Eric J Fry "In California, 30-year fixed rate mortgages are becoming as rare as 30-year old females with breasts
" 04/12/05 - Springtime On Wall Street by Eric J Fry "Down here on Wall St., the signs of spring are less evident. Even so, a stock market rally seems to be budding. This sporadic bloomer does not always germinate, but the early indications are promising" 04/08/05 - Fighting The Tape by Eric J Fry "'I'm looking for managers that are good stock-pickers, but also know how to get out of the way of the tape. Unfortunately, they're hard to find,' an influential hedge-fund consultant complained" 04/07/05 - Less FIlling, Tastes Great by Eric J Fry "Pair trading" is the non-alcoholic wine of investing. It may resemble the real thing, but delivers none of the buzz
or so some folks think
04/05/05 - Fading Goldman Sachs by Eric J Fry "On Dec 16 1998, an unknown stock analyst that Amazon shares would soar to $400 over the ensuing 12 months. That very day, the stock jumped 46 points. Less than one month later, Amazon shares did indeed hit $400" 04/01/05 - Nobody's Fool by Eric J Fry "April Fool's Day. Warren Buffett can no longer find any decent stocks to buy and is sitting on an enormous pile of cash. We scrutinize this decision and decide Warren buffett is both FOOLISH and LAZY!" 03/31/05 - A Seductive Scenario by Eric J Fry "Dumb money talks. By one measure, the market hasn't been this oversold since May 2004. We look at several leading indicators based on sentiment and deduce the market maybe ready to rally." 03/29/05 - Backwardated by Eric J Fry "Wall St. is best known for its congenital optimism
but when it comes to the commodity arena, the Street is plain pessimistic. This stubborn streak gives sharp investors a chance to break down the house
" 03/22/05 - March Madness by Eric J Fry "College basketball does not possess a monopoly on madness
not even during the month of March. Investors have shown themselves to be just as capable
" 03/18/05 - Corn Pops by Eric J Fry "Despite a bumper crop, corn prices have managed to rise. This action is an anomaly to some traders
but not to your editors of the Rude Awakening. We have an explanation
" 03/17/05 - Pricey Liquids by Eric J Fry "One Budweiser and two ordinary glasses of wine should not cost $64
not even in Manhattan. But they did. And to hear most "experts" tell the tale, crude oil shouldn't cost $56 a barrel
but it does." 03/15/05 - Advantage: Little Guy by Eric J Fry "It's not often that the little guy has an advantage over the Wall St. sharps. The Rude Awakening has found just such a place, where making money is a cinch
" 03/11/05 - Crop Circles by Eric J Fry Agricultural commodities have been soaring for the last five weeks, despite horrible fundamentals. The Rude Awakening wanted to know why
so Eric Fry sought out an expert
03/10/05 - A Question of When by Eric J Fry "Today is the fifth anniversary of the Nasdaq's most famous summit. Much has happened since, including a two year-long-run up in stock prices. What's going on?" 03/08/05 - The Last Shall Be First by Eric J Fry "Warren Buffett made a huge bet against the dollar in 2004 and it paid off. Buffett always seems to get it right. Buffett's annual letter to shareholders came out yesterday
" 03/04/05 - The Oil Pit by Eric J Fry "Yesterday, the Rude Awakening toured the NYMEX. We saw frenzied traders in colored jackets screaming and yelling at one another in the crude pit, as oil challenged its all time high
" 03/03/05 - Inside The Velvet Rope by Eric J Fry "Escorted by a well-connected friend, Eric Fry strolled unmolested past the series of velvet ropes that bars the V.I.P. entrance to "Mansion," one of the trendiest nightclubs in Miami's South Beach
" 03/01/05 - The South Beach Diary by Eric J Fry Have real estate prices turned the corner? Eric Fry brings this anecdotal evidence from South Beach. New home sales and inventory data back up these conclusions. 02/24/05 - Dirty Deeds In China by Eric J Fry "China's rapid growth has come at great cost to the environment. But alongside acid rain comes opportunity
for environmental services companies. Who will profit from China's clean up job? Read on
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