Agora Publishing Agora Publishing: Over the Top
by Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning
Friday, December 24, 2004
Christmas Eve
Poitou, France Bill Bonner recounts his address to the Agora Publishing annual holiday meeting.
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*** Bah, humbug!…but at least Scrooge was saving real money…not
bowing down to an altar of "things"…
*** A fluke or a trend?…on the job, as usual…the secret stock
exchange…
*** A Merry GRIPmas to all…the American love of hyperbole…many
thanks to our readers…and more!
-----------------------
Poor Ebenezer.
The old fellow looked back on his youth last night, as Maria read a
new chapter of A Christmas Carol. What Scrooge saw discomfited him.
His fianc' rejected him. He had found a new love, she said - wealth.
It's either her or I, the young woman seemed to imply. But Scrooge
had already made his choice. He chose the "golden idol."
Of course, times have changed. Today's Scrooges embrace a paper idol.
Ah yes…there's the fun in it. At least gold represents real wealth.
For all his penny-pinching miserliness, at least Scrooge was saving
real money.
Now, people bow down before a phony kind of wealth - the kind you
don't even have to scrimp and save to get! Who shivers in the
wintertime in order to lay up his economies in gold coins? Who sweats
in summer just to buy a few more kruggerands?
No, today's Scrooges are of a different ilk all together. They drive
fancy cars…live in oversized houses…and save nothing. They
worship at a strange new altar - an altar of things…things measured
in paper dollars. For only 400 paper dollars per month you can drive
around in a big, beautiful new car. You won't quite `own' it…but
you can enjoy it anyway. For 2,000 paper dollars per month you can
live in a bright new house with all the conveniences. It won't really
be "your" house…but you will be the one living in it. For a few
paper dollars more…you can spend your fool head off, buying more
things made in Asia. This season's hot items, we are told, are iPods
and DVD players. Who needs them? Who can afford them? Who cares?! The
poor stretch to buy worthless geegaws and monster burgers. The middle
class mortgages itself up…works night and day…runs from pillar to
post…just to keep the paper dollars flowing. And the rich? They
cannot wait to get rid of their money…and industries are springing
up to help them. Hotels have invented new "concierge" services - at
$1,000 per night, and up. Mercedes has a waiting list for its
Maybach. Houses sell for $1 million, $3 million…$5 million. There
seems to be no limit. In New York City, an apartment sold for $44
million. In London, someone paid $104 million for a Picasso. A
Mondrian fetched $21 million.
We recognize the bony, grasping, avaricious hand of Scrooge. We've
seen it on TV! We have all decided not to make that mistake. We will
not scrimp on candles! We will not hoard gold - not while Tiny Tim
needs a new crutch.
But this soft, new hand…reaching for what it cannot really
afford…clutching THINGS of great price and little value…we do not
know what to make of it. And lo…it is attached to our own bodies!
More news, if there is any…
---------------
As the markets are closed today, we thought we could entertain you
with three tales:
The Ghost of Christmas Past
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=4371&tp=a
The Ghost of Christmas Present
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The Ghost of Christmas Future
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All three are DR classiques, dating back to 1999, but hold the
timeless spirit of the holidays…Enjoy!
---------------
Bill Bonner, with more views, from the deep heart of France…
*** Ooooh…what's this? House sales took their biggest drop in many
years. November statistics also show the media price fell from
$224,000 to $206,000. A fluke? Or a trend? We will wait to find out.
Markets are closed today. But here at the Daily Reckoning
headquarters in Poitou, we are on the job…as usual. And why not? To
us, the markets are merely another Public Spectacle…more
interesting and exciting than a football game…more serious than an
election…more facetious than a lynching. Why not keep our eyes
open?
But there's not much news today. Stocks rose again yesterday. Buyers
are enjoying what we believe will turn out to be a "catastrophic
success." But heck…we'll wait to find out for sure, just like
everyone else.
*** Our gardener, Damien, appeared at the kitchen door yesterday
afternoon.
Damien is a loveable character. He was an orphan. Now, at the age of
44, he still looks like a lad fetched up at a Catholic home for boys.
He stood at the door in his overalls, with bloody apron about his
waist, to which a few feathers seem to have been glued on. On his
head was a hat with flaps sticking out on both sides like Little Bear
from children's stories. A wide grin on his face. A sparkle in his
eyes. And in his hands was a large, dead turkey.
"I took off all the feathers," he announced to the women in the
kitchen. "Do you want me to leave the head on?"
The bloody head drooped practically to the ground. Our Christmas
lunch did not look appealing.
"Yes, let's leave the head on," said Danielle, a part-time
housekeeper. "It adds flavor."
"Yecch," said Maria.
"What are you doing for Christmas?" Maria asked of Damien.
"Nothing special…"
"I mean, are you spending it with your family?"
"I don't have any family…"
"You're not going over to a friend's house…?"
"No…"
"You mean, you're spending Christmas alone?"
"Yes, but I'm used to it…I've been doing it for 40 years…"
Maria was visibly shocked. But she didn't know what to say. She is
one of six children…and could not imagine a Christmas not
surrounded by family…let alone a Christmas spent all alone.
"Then you must come over here…" she said.
"Okay…I'll bring something to drink."
This morning, a whole case of liquor appeared on the kitchen table.
*** Carl Waynberg, the man Addison Wiggin says is "destined to be one
of the most cutting-edge stock pickers in the investment world," has
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small-cap securities that are destined for a transition to major
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to big exchanges…and these are quality, long-term holds. [For
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see…
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--------------------------
The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The holiday season is a perfect time to
see American over-consumption in all it's glory…and as Bill Bonner
points out, American culture is all about exaggeration…read on…
OVER THE TOP
by Bill Bonner
"You Americans tend to go overboard at Christmas…" -Anonymous
Each year, just before Christmas bonuses are handed out, we draw
together our employees in Baltimore for a company meeting. Your
editor gives a little speech, trying to sound much more like Fezziwig
than Scrooge. Here, we share extracts of it with you, dear reader:
"The purpose of this little address is merely to remind ourselves
what business we are in and to take a moment to appreciate all those
people who have worked hard over the last 12 months not to blow it
up. We are not a publicly traded company, so we cannot rely on the
naivete of stock buyers…nor the connivance of Wall Street for our
daily bread. Instead, every slice must come from customers. It is
them we thank for every slice of whole wheat or rye…every bit of
fruitcake we eat during this Christmas season…and every glass of
punch we drink at tonight's Christmas party. Agora Publishing: Rock and Roll
"Thanks to our customers [that's you, dear reader] we are able to buy
Ravens' tickets…make our mortgage payments…and send our children
to school with shoes on their feet, probably in that order. And
because customers have been so ready to open their purses, we're able
to rock and roll tonight down at the Belvedere Hotel tonight…rather
than at, say, St. Aphonso's church hall.
"So let us first take a moment to think of the people who pay our
salaries and bar tabs…let us wish them all a happy holiday along
with all the joys this wonderful old world offers.
"And now, we turn back to us …to our company…and what we have
wrought.
"First, we must clear up a misunderstanding. We heard a rumor the
other day that our company had made an extraordinary amount of money
this year. Fifty million dollars was the number we heard. It recalls
the story of the Texas oil man who made $1 million from a single well
in outside of Dallas. The man in question heard the story and turned
to his friend:
"'Well,' he said, 'it wasn't really an oil well…it was natural gas.
And it wasn't really outside of Dallas; it was outside of Houston.
And it wasn't really a million dollars; it was two million. And it
wasn't really me; it was my brother. And he didn't really make it; he
lost it.'
"When we heard how much money we were alleged to have made, we were
shocked. 'I hope my wife doesn't find out about this,' I said to
someone in the accounting department. 'Don't worry,' he said, 'she
already thinks you make more than that.' Agora Publishing: Twisted in the Retelling
"Stories tend to get a little exaggerated and twisted in the
retelling.
"But we have had a very good year. We made money; probably more than
we deserved. But there is a time and a season for everything. For
many, many years we made less than we thought we deserved. Everything
tends to balance out in the long run.
"Our publishing business is very healthy financially. We began
business 26 years ago. And we never borrowed a dime from anyone. This
was not because we were especially smart or especially prudent; it
was just because there was never a lender around who was dumb enough
to lend us money. Nor did we ever really take much profit out of the
business. Again, this is not so much a mark of virtue as of
incompetence; for many, many years we never made any profit. So, not
taking it out was fairly easy…and became a habit. Even now, when we
are profitable…we distribute very little money to shareholders.
Instead, it is reinvested in the business.
"So, today, we find ourselves debt free…well…almost.
"You see, we're in the publishing business. And there's a peculiar
feature of the tax code that allows publishers to push forward their
tax liability - as long as they're expanding. This made it possible
for us to operate for nearly a quarter of a century without paying
tax on profits. But eventually it catches up with you. We knew it
would. So we've been putting aside some money each year. And thanks
to this year's profitability, we've finally been able to put away
enough money so that we can settle up with the IRS. So despite what
you hear about us making record amounts of money - which is true - if
we were to close our doors tomorrow, we would still barely have
enough money to pay off the government. So you see, dear reader,
making money is not nearly as easy as people think.
"But people love to exaggerate. And no one loves hyperbole more than
we do…here at the Daily Reckoning. In fact, people often criticize
us for saying things that are `over the top.' Kiplinger magazine, for
example, accuses us of overdoing it in the current issue. 'Hyperbole
made easy,' is the title. Above the title is the date: January 2005.
We don't know, but the last time we looked, it was still December of
2004. Kiplinger didn't seem to notice that it, too, stretches the
boring truth - clear into the next calendar year! Nothing wrong with
that, as far as we're concerned. Hyperbole is what distinguishes
America from other countries; it is what makes us what we are.
Everything about the place is oversized. The cars, the houses, the
people…and the country itself. Practically every movie, every
shopping mall, every great American novel, every popular song…even
the wide open spaces are a form or hyperbole. Look at what drives
down the streets. Is not the Hummer a superb example of exaggeration?
Look at Pamela Anderson! Agora Publishing: Overstatement, Exaggeration, Hyperbole
"Americans love hyperbole. British humor may be based on
understatement. But American humor is based on
over-statement….exaggeration…hyperbole. 'My wife was so fat she
got stuck in the Holland Tunnel'…or…'He was so short he had to
stand on tippy-toes to kiss a duck's derriere.'
"But Americans, of course, are no greater fools than anyone else.
They like hyperbole because it provides insights that would be lost
the dull details of daily life. Amid the constant background noise of
TV news and cocktail chatter, the boom of hyperbole wakes us up…and
brings to life the nuances…the curiosities…and the absurdities of
the world we live in.
'Words must be a little wild,' said the great economist John Maynard
Keynes, 'for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking.'
"At the Daily Reckoning we take aim at the unthinking every day. We
can't help but notice that much of what passes for conventional,
reasonable and moderate - the kind of things you would find in a
Kiplinger headline, for example - is really even more absurd than the
`over the top' palaver of its critics. What's more, the hyperboles do
not get you into trouble, it's the exaggerations and absurdities that
you don't even notice.
"The man on the street - the prototypical Kiplinger reader - believes
he can make money by just buying stocks `for the long haul.' He
thinks his house will make him rich. That he can `get something for
nothing' is not merely an idea - but the basis of his retirement
program! A falling dollar? Don't worry about it! Record deficits?
They'll work themselves out somehow. Yet, none of these preposterous
ideas is thought to be `over the top.' Agora Publishing: Over the Top
"The expression `over the top' was used in WWI. Then, it was
considered perfectly reasonable - indeed, it was the conventional
wisdom - that a man would leave his trench, going `over the top', and
walk across open ground while other men tried to kill him, usually
successfully. No one knew exactly what the point of it was…but at
the time, almost everyone agreed; it was the thing to do. Kiplinger
might have put it on a cover: `Get Your Butt Shot to Hell in No Man's
Land'… and considered it very reasonable, moderate and responsible
journalism.
"The trouble is, you cannot always tell what's `over the top' and
what's not - until you're lying dead.
"Years ago, we took up the issue in London. We went to visit the
financial regulators in that city - England's equivalent of our SEC.
They had a rule against used hyperbole or fear in financial
advertising. We wanted to find out what they meant by it.
"So we posed the question:
"'What if we wrote a prediction: The world will soon enter its worst
war ever. Twenty million people will die. Almost all the major
governments of Europe will fall. Our country will be bankrupted. Our
currency will be ruined…
"'What if we wrote that in 1913?' we continued.
"The regulator squirmed in his chair. He did not know what to say. He
was a smart man. He knew that it would have been almost impossible to
exaggerate the horror of what was to come in 1914. No `fear' tapped
out on a mangy journalist's typewriter could come close to the real
fear that was soon to be felt by the millions of young British men
who would have to go `over the top' into the maul of modern war. And
no sorrow conjured up by a gifted imagination could match the real
grief of millions of keening widows and orphans. Hyperbole and fear
are not fixed stars upon which a man can steer…but inconstant
moons, that wax and wan according to the circumstances.
"That is the trouble with hyperbole, dear reader, it is never reaches
the scale of real life. And that is the trouble with real life, it
refuses to confine itself to our hyperboles.
"But it is Christmas. It is time to go overboard again. And enjoy
it."
Regards,
Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning
Editor's Note: Bill Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily
Reckoning. He is also the author, with Addison Wiggin, of The Wall
Street Journal best seller Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the
Soft Depression of the 21st Century (John Wiley & Sons).
The Best Investment Book I've Ever Read!
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