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The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition
September 11-12, 2004
Baltimore, Maryland
By Addison Wiggin and Tom Dyson

MARKET REVIEW: A BAPTISM IN BLUE

"In the spring, they plant 85,000 tulips. Tour buses come from 5 different states
to see our tulips…"

Your entirely misplaced British editor was in a truck with Rudy 'the Rude Dog'
Strukoff, a local blues musician. The Dog was showing me around a large garden on
the way to his house.

"I've been to a party in that one, and that one…oh yeah, and in that one several
times…" Rudy is pointing out some of the houses in his neighborhood, "…and that
guy over there's got a wine collection so big, it's probably worth a million dollars."

We were headed to the Voo Doo Lounge, Rudy's Blues club, to think up some lyrics for
a Daily Reckoning Blues track. "Try'n keep it simple, you know, one syllable words
work best. And a theme, or a story, something like that," The Dog advised. "Otherwise
you lose the single most important element of a blues song - it's got to be cool…"

Here at the Daily Reckoning, we don't know much about composing Blues songs and even
less about being cool - we leave that to the Rude Dog - we just provide the doom and
gloom…

…if we can find it.

But we can't, at least, not in the markets. Stocks and bonds rose together last week.

Tech stocks were strongest. The semiconductor index gained 7.2% last week, in a huge
26-point bounce.

After steep falls in the chip sector the week before last - including a one-day 7%
drubbing for Intel - the semiconductor index was 36% below this year's peak. "The
extreme weakness in the chip sector seems quite extraordinary when considered in
isolation," says the Speculative Investor 8 days ago, "but what's even more
extraordinary is that several of the world's most important technology stocks are
down by around 40% from their highs with the S&P500 Index only down by 4% from its
high. In fact, even the tech-heavy NASDAQ100 Index is only down by 12% from its high."
 
And then yesterday, the Speculative Investor after the rally: "It's generally not a
good idea to get enthused by powerful 1-2 day advances during bear markets because
they happen quite often and are seldom the precursors to multi-month rallies…however,
in light of the relative strength in the SOX and the fact that the NASDAQ100 Index has
just confirmed the multi-week highs recently achieved by the S&P500 and the Dow, we
now think the odds favor an upside breakout…."

Steve Sjuggerud recommended a tech stock in the September issue of True Wealth.

 And Bill Bonner, last week: "You expect something to happen…and then, when it doesn't
happen, you're surprised. After awhile, you begin to expect that it will never happen;
then you're surprised when it does. The financial world is always full of surprises."

What kind of surprise? Impossible to say. But no surprises last week, the Nasdaq gained
2.7% to 1,894, and the Dow added 53 to 10,313.

If nothing much was accomplished in the markets on Friday, even less was accomplished
in the Voo Doo Lounge, Friday evening. We were in a Blues club; the markets had closed
and the special beer fridge was full. And instead of working, we watched the Rolling
Stones play to a packed-out Wembley stadium in 1989 on a wide screen T.V.

Regards,

Tom Dyson
for The Daily Reckoning


P.S. The Rude Dog has produced a c.d. called Baptism in Blue. It's a collection of
Baltimore Blues with performances from guitarist, Linwood Taylor and from Mark Wenner
of the Nighthawks.

If you'd be interested in hearing one of Rudy's c.ds or finding out more about the
Baltimore blues scene, follow this link to Rudy's website:

Baptism in Blue

--- Daily Reckoning Book Of The Week ---

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THIS WEEK in THE DAILY RECKONING

UNDAUNTED COWARDICE                              9/10/04
by Bill Bonner

"…What makes courage worth celebrating is that it is as rare and as delightful as a
liquor store that still makes home deliveries. It is uncommon…and persists only
until stamped out by regulators, legislators or a bullet to the head. The idea of a
whole nation of it is preposterous…"

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=10173

THE LAZY INVESTOR'S REWARD                       9/9/04
by John Mauldin

"…I should note that this makes a very big difference in retirement lifestyles.
At a 5% return, we are talking about the difference between $2,400 per year and
$11,000 per year on that original $10,000…"

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=10160

 

THE GREAT MACRO PROFIT ILLUSION                     9/8/04
by Kurt Richenbacher

"…The biggest surprise in the GDP data was the reported sharp slowdown in
consumer spending to just 1% at annual rate…"
 
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=10150
 

THE TRADER-ECONOMIST HYBRID                            9/7/04
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"…The nascent emerging market desk of a New York bank hired Carlos in 1992.
He had the right ingredients for success. He knew where on the map to find the
countries that issued "Brady bonds," dollar-denominated debt instruments issued
by less-developed countries. He knew what gross domestic product meant. He looked
serious…"

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=10141

----------------------

HEADLINE, NEWS And INSIGHT:

Food for Thought
by Dan Denning

"…There are a lot of risks, of course. But you know that already. I mention
it now simply to remind you that seventy percent of your total return in any
investment comes from being in the right asset class. In other words, you can
own the best company in the world, but if stocks are in a bear market, you're
in the wrong asset class…"

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=4107

A Brooklyn Bridge Bull
by Paul Mampilly

"…Today, looking at the future, prognostications are once again for more of
the same of what we've had recently: low interest rates, higher prices for
stocks, bonds and real estate, Alan Greenspan, inflation, contained financial
crises, loose credit, more consumer spending, the continued primacy of money
over value or values, the belief that things simply cannot go seriously wrong
without some painless fix…"

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=4106

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