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The Daily Reckoning Archives…

The Daily Reckoning archive inclues issues from:
1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008
January 2003 - December 2003

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12/31/2003 - A BULLISH MIRAGE
By Kurt Richebächer "For us the greatest uncertainties are about the U.S. economy, its financial system and its currency. The great issue not only for America but also for the global economy is whether the U.S. economy has definitely reached…"
12/30/2003 - THE GRAND ILLUSION
By Sean Corrigan "…The tenuous 'benefits' of inflationist policy in the U.S. are illusionary at best. They will almost certainly falter should the Fed step down its monetary efforts…"
12/29/2003 - COST FREE
By The Mogambo Guru "…'Seignorage is the difference between the value of money and the cost of its production,' writes Dan Neel in the NY Press. But looked at another way, seignorage is also a shining example of glorious government…"
12/26/2003 - A CHRISTMAS LETTER
By Bill Bonner "…We enjoyed a very quiet, and unseasonably warm, Christmas here in Poitou. The festivities began with a party…The purpose of [which] was to sing Christmas carols in English."
12/25/2003 - THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS FUTURE
By Bill Bonner "…The [ghost of Christmas Yet to Come] conducted [Ebenezer] beyond a full, bright moon…to where the moon shone no more. It was as if a tide of night had washed the stars out of the sky."
12/24/2003 - THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PRESENT
By Bill Bonner "…Ebenezer looked in the window. It was a very modest house, of the sort you could have bought with a few shares of Cisco in 1999. Now it would take twice as many shares."
12/23/2003 - THE GHOST OF CHRISTMAS PAST
By Bill Bonner "…That evening, Ebenezer slept poorly. After finally achieving the sleep he longed for, his rest was suddenly interrupted by the sound of ringing bells. Yes, bells."
12/22/2003 - THE SUNNY OPTIMISM OF YOUTH
By The Mogambo Guru "…Every single indicator of inflation is rising, and HAS been rising, and yet the Fed is still holding interest rates to absurd lows! As I write, the Reuters CRB Index has risen 11 percent this year."
12/19/2003 - FANTASIES
By Bill Bonner "…The American consumer not only keeps pace with the absurdity; he races ahead, as if he wanted to be first in line at bankruptcy court. Not since the Enlightenment have people been ready to concede…"
12/18/2003 - LAHARS
By Dan Ferris "…Money…health…only if you're really lucky do you lose these things gradually and in small increments, over long periods of time. Being really smart helps, but is not required."
12/17/2003 - PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED, PART DEUX
By Bill Bonner "…It is the fat pig that feels the butcher's knife, say the Chinese. On March 20th of 2000, few pigs were fatter than Michael Saylor. And perhaps none felt the butcher's knife more sharply."
12/16/2003 - PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED
By Bill Bonner "…Mr. Deshais had sawed through the pig's skull. The brain cavity opened like the halves of a walnut, revealing an organ not much larger than a potato…But maybe I should back up and explain the entire process to you."
12/15/2003 - MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR
By The Mogambo Guru "…The Fed increased raw, fungible credit by $5.8 billion. In one week! And, I might add, to a new record, another new all-time new high, never before seen since the inception of the entire Federal Reserve System!"
12/14/2003 - BEAR HUNTING IS BACK! - DR WEEKEND EDITION
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Over on Wall Street, bear hunting never goes out of season, no matter how small the bear population becomes. Indeed, on Wall Street, the object is not merely to eradicate the bears, but to inflict as much…"
12/11/2003 - THE RAPE OF NANKING
By Bill Bonner "…[The Rape of Nanking] provides evidence against those who believe in the perfectibility of man. Beginning in December 1937…only 65 years ago…the world was reminded of what evil was all about."
12/11/2003 - JAPANESE PHANTOM GROWTH
By Kurt Richebacher How to reconcile [the Bank of Japan's] dismal description of the economic situation with the officially reported stellar real GDP growth rate of 3.9% for the second quarter?"
12/10/2003 - THE FIVE YEARS 'TIL TRAGEDY RULE
By Steve Sjuggerud "…After a major stock market peak, there are five years until tragedy…five years until a dollar crisis - and soaring commodity prices. Five years after the stock market peak in 1857…"
12/09/2003 - GREAT EXPECTATIONS
By Bill Bonner "…Modern economists no longer believe in 'ought'. They don't appreciate her moral tone and try to ignore her. The whole method of modern economics [has] shifted from exploring what a man ought to do…to statistical analysis."
12/08/2003 - WEEP FOR AMERICA
By The Mogambo Guru "…I think that a 30% devaluation in the purchasing power of the dollar is entirely achievable, if that is the term that one uses to describe such a catastrophe, and I have a hard time conceiving that all foreigners…"
12/07/2003 - STRAYING FROM THE RECOVERY SCRIPT - DR WEEKEND EDITION
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Since Mr. Economy is ad-libbing, Mr. Market has no choice but to rewrite the script… So he ditches the scene where millions of adoring investors carry him aloft through the NASDAQ 2000 and Dow 10,000."
12/05/2003 - THE MADNESS OF GEORGE II
By Bill Bonner "…The madness of George II, reigning president of the American government, is that he believes he can do what has never been done. Our worry is not that George II will be proved wrong…"
12/04/2003 - THE GOLDEN MEGATREND
By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden "…Gold has been in a solid bull market since reaching its lows in 2001, almost three years ago. Now, it hovers over $400 an ounce - a seven-year high in U.S. dollar terms…"
12/03/2003 - THE RECESSION-THAT-WASN'T
By Bill Bonner "…Recessions typically correct attitudes and asset prices - and repair balance sheets. Debts are written off or paid down while savings rates mount. But none of that happened [in 2001]."
12/02/2003 - THE ERA OF FICTITIOUS CAPITALISM
By Addison Wiggin "…In 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and the dollar - the last major currency to be tethered to gold - came unstuck."
12/01/2003 - UNCOMPREHENDING DISBELIEF
By The Mogambo Guru "…Every living being in the nation is being plunged into more debt at an annual rate of $7,057. And a nice chunk of the money, which bought all that new debt, came from foreigners with deposits at the Fed."
11/29/2003 - FLIGHT OF FANCY
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "… Ben Bernanke has gotten his wish. The government has successfully generated 'higher spending and hence positive inflation'…and gold investors are grateful."
11/28/2003 - SINOSITIS
By Bill Bonner "…There are two major ways to compete in the business world, price or quality. China has an almost inexhaustible supply of cheap labor. With adequate capital funding…and access to global markets…"
11/27/2003 - THANKSGIVING
By Bill Bonner "…Thanksgiving was declared a national holiday in 1931. Through the Depression, and then WWII, Thanksgiving grew in importance. In a country where roots meant almost nothing, where people were ready to pick up and move…"
11/26/2003 - THE PERPETUAL CHINESE BUBBLE MACHINE
By Lynn Carpenter "…China is the biggest opportunity we investors have ever seen. (I trust none of us is over 150 years old.) The last one that was this big and as likely to stay at the top for a long time was a young country called America."
11/25/2003 - MARGIN OF SAFETY
By James Boric "…Graham, Buffett and Templeton were all successful because they refused to pay market value for a stock. And that meant they ignored the herd when it came to the hot stock tip du jour."
11/24/2003 - ONE BIG UGLY THING
By The Mogambo Guru "…All the extra money and credit flooding the U.S. will keep working its way into prices, because that is where the money always goes, as has been proved by unanimous historical precedent."
11/21/2003 - FROM FUNERAL TO FUNERAL
By Bill Bonner "…Reason never was primal. Not even secondary. It is rarely more than a rationalization for what people want to do anyway. Still, when the Federal Reserve.."
11/20/2003 - LET THE REVOLUTION BEGIN
By John Myers "…There are two things, really, that are pushing commodities to all-time highs. In fact, I call this a double-barreled bull market…and it has only just begun. The first barrel is one readers of the Daily Reckoning will be well…"
11/19/2003 - A LONG DAY'S JOURNEY INTO RETIREMENT NIGHT
By Bill Bonner "…All over the Western world, more and more people are getting older and older. So, we wonder, what happens when whole populations get old? We look to Japan for an answer…and don't like what we see."
11/18/2003 - CRISIS BEGETS CRISIS
By Christopher Mayer "…The history of attempting to maintain certain fixed exchange rates by international agreement has a long, rich history of failure, once again illustrating that government power is no match for the relentless…"
11/17/2003 - MOSEY TO THE HILLS
By The Mogambo Guru "…It used to be that little boys and girls got toys, or candy, or a piece of coal in their Christmas stocking that was so carefully hung by the chimney with care. Now we get a toys and an IOU from Santa Claus…"
11/15/2003 - STATISTICAL ADONIS, REAL-WORLD ELEPHANT MAN
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Trying to pinpoint the exact causes of the dollar's weakness is like trying to pinpoint the exact causes of President Bush's declining popularity - there is no single reason."
11/14/2003 - BEYOND NIETZSCHE
By Bill Bonner "… Nietzsche identified two different kinds of knowledge. There are the things you know from personal experience and observation, which he called 'erfahrung.'"
11/13/2003 - THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CREDIT AND DEBT
By Wendy Raffel and Robert Folsom "…We are a nation of consumers who live beyond our means. Our consumption exceeds what we can afford…hence the overuse of credit, and the debt extremes that come with it."
11/12/2003 - TOO MANY TREASURE HUNTERS
By Marc Faber "…Shares do not always go up in the long run. The reality is that most companies go out of business in the long term, and investors must continuously look for new companies, regions, sectors, and asset classes within…"
11/11/2003 - ARMISTICE DAY
By Bill Bonner "…Over the four years of the first World War, one by one, the people back at home got the news…the telegrams…the letters. The church bells rang. The black cloth came out. And for years after…at 11 A.M., the bells tolled…"
11/10/2003 - UNCONVENTIONAL METHODS
By The Mogambo Guru "…In case you are wondering, the gigantic increase in GDP was the result of morons, like you and me, but not you and me, and not nearly as good looking as us, well, you anyway, borrowing money…"
11/08/2003 - FINANCIAL HERESY
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Our age in finance is an age of heresy," says Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. "Budgets go unbalanced, currencies go un-collateralized, current-account deficits go uncorrected…"
11/07/2003 - PRACTICING RANDOM ACTS OF INSANITY
By Bill Bonner "…At the Daily Reckoning…we like old things. Old buildings. Old ideas. Old trees. Old rules. Old investors. The older the investor, the more confidence we have in him. He's seen good times and bad times…"
11/06/2003 - THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES
By Kurt Richebächer "…While a few economists have been warning that this recovery's actual pace may disappoint, our own view is that the U.S. economy's higher growth rate in the second quarter was totally deceptive."
11/05/2003 - LAST MAN STANDING
By Bill Bonner "…We have come to believe that Alan Greenspan is one of the last of the New Era heroes. As long as he still stands, we think, the delusion of greater wealth through greater borrowing stands, too."
11/04/2003 - DEEP IN DEBT, CAUGHT IN A NET
By Hans Sennholz "…Private debtors may find it difficult to pay for bread that has been eaten. It is likely to become ever more difficult in the future as the cost of debt is likely to double and triple."
11/03/2003 - LITANY OF WOE
By The Mogambo Guru "…The poor and the old and the disabled and all those static-income people get the old baseball-bat-upside-the-head treatment, or in this case let-them-starve-to-death treatment, when it comes to inflation."
11/01/2003 - RUSSELL SAYS - GOLD TO REACH $556
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…But look at the picture in the gold market," Russell urged the audience. "The picture is a mirror image of the stock market. The 20-month moving average of the gold price is crossing UP through the 40-month…"
10/31/2003 - ALL SAINTS' DAY
By Bill Bonner "…We celebrate the First Amendment now; we do not practice it. Likewise, America celebrates liberty. It is like Halloween…an empty expression…a hollow festival…something to feel good about."
10/30/2003 - THE TRAGIC DEATH OF CURTIS MOBERLY
by Dan Ferris "…I remember what the Christian brothers called us as high school sophomores: wise fools. That's what investors are today, and what Curtis Moberly was - may he rest in peace."
10/29/2003 - THE TROUBLE WITH THE WHOLE WORLD
By Bill Bonner "…Digital Man is stumped. To him, everything works by simple cause and effect logic. When the cost of borrowing goes down, the demand should increase."
10/28/2003 - CLAMOR FOR A CURE
By Sean Corrigan "…In a truly free market, where business concerns are free to compete, replace, and improve each other, profits made by the foresighted and fortunate will, on balance, outweigh the losses made by the foolish and foredoomed."
10/25/2003 - UNDER THE ECONOMIC SUN
By The Mogambo Guru "…The big problem with economics is that there has been nothing new under the economic sun for thousands of years. There has always been government, and taxes, and buying and selling, and borrowing and lending…"
10/25/2003 - THE PARTY IS RUNNING OUT OF HORS D'OEVRES
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Let's take a quick tour of the latest investors sentiment readings. The four most widely followed gauges of investor sentiment -- Bullish Consensus, AAII, Investor's Intelligence and Marketvane…"
10/24/2003 - TYRANNY OF THE HERE AND NOW
By Bill Bonner "…Many are the times we have railed against this injustice. That is the problem with democracy and popular markets, we have pointed out; only the living get to express an opinion."
10/23/2003 - CONVERGENCE UNDER THE BED SPREAD
By Dan Denning "…To get it, I established a spread between emerging market debt and U.S. government debt. If I'm right about the U.S. bond market losing its gold-standard reputation, the spread should converge over time."
10/22/2003 - DECLINE OF THE OLD ORDER
By William Rees-Mogg "…Early in the 20th century there was much fashionable concern in Europe about the decline of the West. Many observers thought that the European lead in 19th century manufacturing would prove to have been…"
10/21/2003 - COMMODITIES V. THE DOW
By John Myers "…It is a similar story for the adjusted monetary base, or the super money that the Fed lends to banks, who in turn lend it out in multiples. The surplus cash key component of the adjusted monetary base is rising at an even…"
10/20/2003 - MOGAMBO MONDAY
By The Mogambo Guru "…And in case you are at a loss to understand why the sirens in the Mogambo Bunker are blaring, why the klaxons are sounding, why all the bells are ringing, or why I have maps showing emergency routes out of town…"
10/18/2003 - MOPING MARKET
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…He moped around all day long yesterday, despondent over the Boston baseball team's heartbreaking loss to the indomitable New York Yankees. The hard-luck Sox have been disappointing their fans…"
10/17/2003 - BAT MEAT
By Bill Bonner "…Nationwide, houses have been going up in price at about the same rate as increases in the money supply…that is, about 8% per year. In certain areas, the increases have been far more resplendent…"
10/16/2003 - DYNAMIC MARKET THEORY
By J. Christoph Amberger "…Point is, all that money didn't just 'vaporize,' as the perennial bears like to claim. A lot of it simply moved. Now money is flowing back into stocks again…"
10/15/2003 - LESSONS OF HISTORY, PART II
By Marc Faber "…for today's investor, however, the most interesting effect of excess liquidity creation is perhaps found in commodity prices. In the future, just as during the Mississippi Scheme…"
10/14/2003 - LESSONS OF HISTORY, PART I
By Marc Faber "…'The Great Swindle' is an excellent account of the events that surrounded the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Scheme. Although over the following 300 or so years the stage of investment manias repeatedly changed…"
10/13/2003 - THE OTHER FEDERAL BUDGET
By The Mogambo Guru "…Wayne Crews, the director of technology policy at the Cato Institute, argues with unstoppable, iron logic, striding like a Colossus across the intellectual landscape…"
10/12/2003 - BULLS' REIGN & THE SCHOOL OF OUGHT
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…Modern economists no longer believe in 'ought.' They do not appreciate her moral tone.to them, the economy is a giant machine with no soul, no heart . no right and no wrong. It is just a matter of finding the…"
10/09/2003 - PRODUCTIVE DESTRUCTION
By Jim Davidson "…Seen in the light of economic logic, the politician who could accelerate productivity growth and make more jobs redundant would be doing the most to raise living standards for his constituents."
10/08/2003 - FAT TAILS
By Bill Bonner "…Things that are extremely out-of-whack eventually work their way back into whack. But then they diverge again and the tails fatten. Sometimes prices diverge from the mean."
10/07/2003 - THE SCARIEST SCENARIO IMAGINABLE
By Steve Sjuggerud "…While the 'smart money' sells tech stocks in record amounts…the 'dumb money' is taking on debt to buy these stocks on margin. By my studies, the 'dumb money' is at an extreme of optimism not seen…"
10/06/2003 - YOU PAY, WE PROVIDE
By The Mogambo Guru "…Earth to Mr. Stiglitz! Yes, the President, the Secretary of the Treasury, and especially the Fed Chairman CAN be blamed for the bubble mania, and I, the Mighty Mogambo, blame them with every fiber of my being…"
10/04/2003 - POOR RICHARD DEFIED
By Eric Fry "…Despite the extreme volatility rocking the financial markets, gold struggled all week and then seemed to collapse in an exhausted heap on Friday afternoon. The yellow metal cratered as much as $16 on Friday…"
10/03/2003 - POOR HOUSE, PART I
By Bill Bonner "…Many are the reasons given why real estate prices must continue to rise. On the other hand, we immediately see one reason why they might all be wrong: everyone believes them. As they say on Wall Street…"
10/02/2003 - MYANMAR EXAMINED
By Jim Rogers "…Various armed separatist movements have dominated [Myanmar's] politics over the last four decades. Nevertheless, in the '90s, Myanmar slowly began to reopen its borders to both people and capital…"
10/01/2003 - THE GILDERED AGE
By Bill Bonner "…It doesn't seem real. It doesn't seem right. 'Most of us know,' writes Malone, 'intuitively, that these young web companies minted by the hour will not survive and prosper."
10/01/2003 - POOR HOUSE II
By Bill Bonner "…Last week, we established an important point: that the house itself - the physical thing - couldn't possibly increase in value. All its components deteriorate, depreciate, fade and decay - just like everything else."
09/30/2003 - THE MYSTERY OF WYNDCLYFFE
By Addison Wiggin "…The Fed and Treasury have lost their way altogether. Gone are the days when self reliance meant busting your gut to build a house, a factory…or even a fine piece of furniture."
09/29/2003 - THE FED'S FREE LUNCH PROGRAM
By The Mogambo Guru "…Bernanke says that he will be happy to achieve monetary policy objectives by unconventional means, and nobody gets all shook up, except me. So I figure that we bedeviled savers out here ought to emulate…"
09/27/2003 - THE SEPTEMBER JINX
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…The dollar as a "store of value" is anathema to the shamans at the Fed. Rather, for the sake of the economy, the Fed seems to desire that each crisp new dollar bill begin losing its value the moment…"
09/26/2003 - HURT
By Bill Bonner "…When the Grim Reaper comes around for a politician of consequence…a Roosevelt or a Lincoln, for instance…apologists make a great effort to turn him into a kind of plastic archangel."
09/25/2003 - THE NEXT EMPIRE
By James Boxley Cooke "…Even with the current global economic slowdown, China is still likely to grow at more than 7% a year. That's a huge number for an economy this size. And it represents huge potential profits for us as investors."
09/24/2003 - EMPLOYMENT DISASTER
By Kurt Richebächer "There has been much talk to the effect that America has just had its slightest recession in the whole postwar period. That is measured in real GDP growth, being bolstered by many statistical tricks."
09/23/2003 - NEPAL
By Marc Faber "…[Would] Asian stock markets…suffer should the U.S. stock market experience a serious correction or a crash in the next few months? This question prompted me to look at some very simple economic, financial, and social…"
09/22/2003 - TRADE POLICIES OF THE CAVEMEN
By The Mogambo Guru "…Just as Michael Boskin showed the government how to lie with statistics about inflation - as if the government ever needed any help with lying, since they seem to cleave to it so naturally…"
09/21/2003 - AN UNCOMFORTABLE FEELING
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 173 points for the week to 9,471, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.7% to 1,855. The bond market also enjoyed steady buying interest…"
09/19/2003 - AS WE GO MARCHING
By Bill Bonner "…The romantic appeal of war…and the political pull of military spending…the economic delusion…the polished brass and boots…it was all too much to resist. Despite a disastrous experience in WWI, under Mussolini's…"
09/18/2003 - ACCIDENTAL IMMIGRANTS
By Bill Bonner "…My thoughts drifted to experiences of the last 6 years - since we moved to France…and how, little by little, without ever really thinking about it, we became something we never intended."
09/17/2003 - HOMELAND
By Doug Casey "…I'm favorably inclined towards real estate as an investment class. But as a means of growing wealth, the party is over, for now at least. The way I see it, there are two ways to play real estate."
09/16/2003 - PACIFIC SYMBIOSIS
By Brian Durrant "…The Cold War is over and Europe's economic star is in decline. According to the latest IMF forecasts, the U.S. is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, Japan by 2.0%, Britain by 1.7% and the eurozone by a measly 0.5%."
09/15/2003 - THE RISE OF THE DEMOPUBLICAN
By The Mogambo Guru "…Raising taxes will, as I said, reduce somebody's income, but it will also increase somebody else's income, namely the recipient of the taxes when the money is spent as part of some government program."
09/13/2003 - WHAT DOES THE GOLD MARKET KNOW?
By Addison Wiggin and Eric Fry "…as long as the stock market is rising, the lumpeninvestoriat will trust that all is well and hope that all will soon be better still. They will believe that economic conditions are improving and that stocks…"
09/12/2003 - FLIGHT TO IMBECILITY
By Bill Bonner "…In a crisis, investors fly to safety; all of a sudden, their attention shifts from return ON investment to return OF investment. But what about today's investor?"
09/11/2003 - (UN)CONSTRAINED DISCRETION
By John Mauldin "…Establishing a 'reasonable' set of policies, such as Paul McCulley suggests, would mean the Fed may to all too soon feel forced to abandon them in order to deal with the potential crisis resulting from today's imbalances."
09/10/2003 - END OF DAYS
By John Myers "…The problem for dollar holders who are wary of the greenback's falling purchasing power is where to go. With the exception of the Swiss franc, few currencies offer a greater long-term purchasing guarantee than the dollar."
09/09/2003 - PONZI ECONOMY
By Kurt Richebächer "…This simple recognition - gross lack of saving and capital formation - is really at the root of our controversial and highly critical view of the U.S. economy's sanity and vitality."
09/08/2003 - FED BANKERS AT THE J-HOLE
By the Mogambo Guru "…So there you have it in a nutshell. There are no criteria that you can use to criticize the Fed's actions, and we have to rely on Greenspan's personal judgment."
09/05/2003 - SINO BUBBLE
By Bill Bonner "…We do not really believe the Chinese numbers. Instead, we take them all like dabs of paint on a Seurat or Pissarro painting. No number is reliable in itself, but stepping back, we're able to get an impression of something…"
09/04/2003 - A GENTLEMAN'S BET
By James Boric "…Despite the doom and gloom, I suggested last September, based on historical precedent, it was time to invest in fundamentally sound small-cap stocks. Why?"
09/04/2003 - W'S LATEST BARNEY
By Sean Corrigan "…There is nothing more inimical to economic recovery - as well as to personal liberty - than the doctrine encapsulated by Bush in the words: 'We have a responsibility that when somebody hurts, government has got to move.'"
09/02/2003 - HOUSING'S LAST HURRAH?
By Steve Sjuggerud "…Nationwide, home prices increased by 7.4%, a large increase by historical standards - but home prices in nearly a third of the metropolitan areas in the country posted extraordinary double-digit gains."
09/01/2003 - NUMERICALLY PRECISE, HYSTERICALLY RABID
By The Mogambo Guru "…You will be happy to know, or maybe not, depending on your perspective, that, as far as I can tell from this cursory and wildly incompetent search of the data, there has never been a freaking MONTH…"
08/29/2003 - NIXON'S THE ONE!
By Bill Bonner "…History will show that Nixon was the one who cut the dollar loose from gold. A paternity test would show that he was also the one who loosed upon the financial world almost all its current discontents."
08/28/2003 - RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
By Bill Bonner "…'What we call progress,' said Havelock Ellis, 'is the exchange of one nuisance for another nuisance.' As I have pointed out many times, the world has not too little information, but too much - most of it useless rubbish."
08/27/2003 - THE QUEST FOR OIL
By John Myers "…Big Oil acknowledges the increasing difficulties of finding new sources of petroleum to replenish reserves. In an effort to reverse this trend, petroleum companies are turning to technology…"
08/26/2003 - DOWN IS STILL DOWN
By John Mauldin "…The world is changing at an ever-faster pace. It is quite unsettling to many workers, yet that is the reality with which we are faced. Sometimes the changes will force people into a lower life style."
08/25/2003 - GLUTTONOUS INDULGENCES
By The Mogambo Guru "…Why AREN'T these normal times? Because, like a morbidly fat person that has gorged himself for years and years and who now no longer resembles a normal person, economies that have gorged themselves for years…"
08/22/2003 - THE GRANDEST LARCENY
By Bill Bonner "…A lumpen investor, a university economist, or a Federal Reserve governor might have read the headlines of the last 30 years without noticing how they tucked together."
08/21/2003 - WAITING FOR GODOT
By Kurt Richebacher "…The bullish consensus argues that the necessary conditions for the investment revival - above all, higher profits, higher cash flow and stronger balance sheets - are developing."
08/20/2003 - OF BOMBS AND THE BOND MARKET
By Marc Faber "…The situation into which the coalition forces have boxed themselves in Iraq is potentially far more serious than the financial markets are giving it credit for. As a result, I believe that the risks in U.S. financial assets…"
08/19/2003 - THE SALAD OIL SWINDLE
By Dan Ferris "…Buffett's strategy - buying beleagured-yet- fundamentally sound companies at depressed prices - still holds inveterate lessons for the investor with a would-be growing net worth."
08/18/2003 - PILGRIM, PREPARE THYSELF
By The Mogambo Guru "…When the Z$ was selling at par with the US$, gold was, let's say, three hundred bucks an ounce, give or take. Suppose you, being the genius Zimbabwean dude or dudette that you are…"
08/17/2003 - LE PLUS ÇA CHANGE…
By Addison Wiggin "You may be happy to know that the lesser of two evils from the Daily Reckoning Paris office (that would be me) managed to escape the Great French Heat Wave of 2003 by sneaking off with his wife and two…"
08/15/2003 - VILE BODIES
By Bill Bonner "…Today, we return to the morgue. For among the thousands the heat carried away was Diana Mitford, the woman who married Oswald Mosley - a woman about whom we wrote last year. And now we approach the corpse."
08/14/2003 - BUYING TOKYO
By C. Alexander Green "…Over the past decade and a half, Japan has seen the bursting of an investment bubble…a sickening deflationary crisis…a market index that has plummeted 82%…and the emergence of a very black mood…"
08/13/2003 - POLICY SLIPPAGE
By Andrew Kashdan "…The so-called 'recession' - hampered, eased and spread thin at every turn by Greenspan's Fed - was not allowed to run its course; it remained incomplete. no matter what policymakers say or do…"
08/12/2003 - FAT CATS
By Lynn Carpenter "…There are two problems we investors suffer at CEOs' hands today: excessive salaries for mediocre performance…and the real booby trap, the golden parachute payoffs failing CEOs get when they leave."
08/11/2003 - GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC MALFEASANCE
By The Mogambo Guru "…All this at the same time as a coordinated global expansion of budget deficits, printing of excess money, granting of excess credit, bank reserves being lowered to insignificance…"
08/10/2003 - DÉJÀ VU: JOBLESS RECOVERY, PART II
By Addison Wiggin "We Daily Reckoneers have repeated the phrase so many times, it almost sounds like it might be true. Of course, that won't stop us from saying it again: "a new boom rarely starts with the past boom's leaders…'"
08/08/2003 - MARRIAGES OF CONVENIENCE
By Bill Bonner "…Convenient, calculated marriages have their drawbacks; when they become inconvenient, they fall apart. These are the thoughts that lurked in your editor's head as he listened to his wife elaborate Alan Greenspan's case…"
08/07/2003 - THE KINDLEBERGER TRICK
By Steve Sjuggerud "…Can deflation even be avoided? Interestingly enough, Charles Kindleberger suggested an answer back in 1978 - during the height of inflation. 'A lender of last resort should exist, but his presence should be doubted…"
08/06/2003 - GAME OVER
By Eric J. Fry "In the Age of Greenspan, nobody builds anything unless they have to. 'Financial services' is where the modern-day rubber meets the road…And investors have celebrated the low-residue realities of this Brave New Economy…"
08/05/2003 - ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGE UNDER SIEGE
By Robert E. Bauman "…If the IRS position is upheld, the agency can simply speculate that certain groups of people are engaging in alleged illegal tax avoidance schemes and grab their lawyers' files."
08/04/2003 - MONEY-GRUBBING AT THE CENTRAL BANK
By The Mogambo Guru "…'So why would governments, our own governments, do this to us - why would they sell gold and try to manipulate the price?' you ask in that charming little way you have that just melts my heart."
08/01/2003 - RIGOR MORTIS
By Bill Bonner "…'In death, all debts are paid,' said Shakespeare. The dead get no breaks; they are held to strict standards. Rigor mortis - that is what draws our thoughts toward the defunct. The dead are paid up."
07/31/2003 - THE DIVISON OF LABOR… AND GOLD
By Bill Bonner "…A few years ago, everyone maintained an inventory of food. But now we all seem to have an unshakeable faith in the division of labor…and the supply channels upon which our lives depend."
07/30/2003 - GASBACKWARDS
By John Myers "…Today, natural gas is delivered to about 175 million American consumers through a 1.3 million-mile network of underground pipe. Unfortunately, many of the natural gas wells in the United States are beginning to run dry."
07/29/2003 - AN OPEN MOUTH
By Kurt Richebächer "…There is still a third, unconventional instrument of which central bankers have made very different or no use of at all. It has sometimes been called a central bank's open-mouth policy."
07/28/2003 - GREENSCAM
By John Mauldin "…I think we are in a slow-growth Muddle Through Economy. The Fed has virtually guaranteed that short-term rates will remain low for some time, until either inflation appears or the economy is soundly growing above trend."
07/25/2003 - CRACKED
By Bill Bonner "…On one side of the Atlantic, the newspapers rant about the 'ruthlessness' of American capitalism. On the other, the papers rag about the 'rigidity' of French socialism. But on both sides of the great oceans…"
07/24/2003 - THE ULTIMATE DEBACLE
By Marc Faber "…It should already be obvious to U.S. economic policymakers that in an environment of free trade and free capital flows, monetary policies can stimulate borrowings and spending in a high-cost country…"
07/23/2003 - SHED A TEAR
By Eric J. Fry "…What a [bond] bull market it was…so gentle, so kind, so faithful, so enduring - a dear, sweet friend to every other financial market and asset class. (Mr. Housing Market wished to say a few words…"
07/22/2003 - SUBURBIA DELENDA EST
By Bill Bonner "…Houses, like automobiles, are considered 'durable' goods. They are meant to last. Automobiles lose value at a notoriously fast speed. Until now, houses have generally increased in price."
07/21/2003 - THE BUSH DATA DUMP
By The Mogambo Guru "…What bunch of scared witless weenies is NOT concealing losses and giving the impression of long-term health, huh? Nonetheless, as regards the original point, assuming that I even HAD a point to start with…"
07/20/2003 - MIDDLE OF THE MUDDLE
By Addison Wiggin "…'Earnings week' continues this Monday… but one wonders if what is reported will really make a difference. Investors are so convinced that the 'second-half recovery' is in the fix (where have we heard that before?)…"
07/18/2003 - PRAY FOR DAWN
By Bill Bonner "…Both French and Americans believe themselves exceptional. That they are different, we do not deny…But that they are also very much the same is also true; neither can make the world stand still."
07/17/2003 - PREMEDITATED FRAUD
By Karim Rahemtulla "…Companies that still pay a pension are obligated to use a conservative rate of return - usually based on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond - to calculate the future benefits from a plan."
07/16/2003 - CHINA CALLING
By Robert Tracy "…Companies of substance are rare…and they do not necessarily operate in the United States. China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd., the world's largest mobile phone operator (as measured by number of subscribers)…"
07/15/2003 - THE BLESSINGS OF DEFLATION
By Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. "…There is no radical disconnect between the interest of consumers (who always want lower prices) and overall economic health. You can only marvel at the many economists and commentators who try to convince…"
07/14/2003 - BASTILLE DAY
By Bill Bonner "…A poll taken in the early 1780s might have shown the French to be extremely optimistic and confident. And why shouldn't they be? The last major financial crisis - caused by John Law's Mississippi Bubble…."
07/11/2003 - SACRAMENTO ON THE SEINE
By Bill Bonner "…These two ideas - central planning on the one hand…and individual planning on the other - were what separated America from the rest of the world. Americans think their model triumphed over the central planning model…"
07/10/2003 - THE LAST ANALYSIS
By Kurt Richebächer "…Our highly critical assessment of the U.S. economy's performance during the past two to three years, in fact, finds its major justification in the atrocious discrepancy that has developed between extremely…"
07/09/2003 - DISROBING FANNIE MAE
By Eric J. Fry "…It is not easy to become rabidly negative about a stock selling for nine times earnings. But that does not mean it is difficult to fear it. Fannie Mae is like a great-tasting, non-fat dessert, simply too good to be true."
07/08/2003 - LITANY OF HOPE
By John Mauldin "…Up until last week, the Fed policy of lowering short-term rates (plus threatening to work on long-term rates if necessary), had been enough to keep interest rates falling and the economy moving forward…"
07/07/2003 - A SHORT HISTORY OF FANTASTICAL GOVERNMENT INCOMPETENCE
By The Mogambo Guru "…Not only is the government permanently bent on doing more and more jobs it thinks it needs to, which it doesn't, but it's also always spending more and more time and money trying to keep those poor people…"
07/04/2003 - LAND OF THE FREE
By Bill Bonner "…A healthy woman loves her husband, but often hates him too. She has two eyes, and sees a slightly different view of him with each of them. What is wrong with that? Likewise, even a man with only a single eye cannot help…"
07/02/2003 - THE GREATER DEPRESSION, PART II
By James Davidson "…Argentina's "Greater Depression" reflects the bankruptcy and debt default - the ultimate outcomes of malinvestment - of the Argentine state. Though the monetary history of the U.S. does not share quite the same degree…"
07/01/2003 - THE GREATER DEPRESSION
By James Davidson "…The economic history of Argentina provides cautionary evidence that wealthy countries can rapidly fall to Third World income levels. This may be more pertinent than it first appears because the collapse in Argentina…"
06/30/2003 - EUPHUISTIC CLAPTRAP
By The Mogambo Guru "…Remember that the Fed is on record as saying that they will stoop to anything - no matter how stupid, no matter how corrupt, no matter how low, filthy or underhanded, no matter how legal…"
06/28/2003 - PULLBACK
By Addison Wiggin "…Investors ignored Greenspan's attempt to goose the markets with a 25 basis point cut to the Fed funds rate Wednesday. Losses over the week culminated in today's 89 point "pullback"… the Dow…"
06/27/2003 - WE THE DEAD
By Bill Bonner "…The days of the American constitutional republic are long over. The neo-cons claim that they are bringing Wilsonian democracy to the entire world. Somehow, they seem to know that this is what the world wants and needs."
06/26/2003 - "WHITE ELEPHANTS" AND OTHER MONETARY AILMENTS
By Marc Faber "…In the real economy (with a small capital market), bubbles tend to be contained by the availability of savings and credit…whereas in the financial economy (with a disproportionately large capital market…"
06/25/2003 - THE FIRST PANACEA
By John Myers "…The massive eight trillion dollars of U.S. financial assets held by foreigners means that all foreign central banks and foreign institutions have good reason not to liquidate stocks and bonds…"
06/24/2003 - VIPERS, AND THIEVES, TOO
By Addison Wiggin "[Louis] McFadden described the Fed as 'one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known'…an 'evil institution that has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States…"
06/23/2003 - ANTI-LEVERAGE: A THEORETICAL MASTERPIECE
By The Mogambo Guru "…And then - and this is the part that I think will swing it for me with the Nobel Prize people - I make the leap to the concept of government as an asset, and one whose maintenance costs make it also so, so, so…"
06/20/2003 - DEAD MEN TALKING
By Bill Bonner "…Few people complain about this tyranny of the living. Most accept it as a fact of life. They would not want people to be excluded from the pleasures of life because of an 'accident of birth.'
06/19/2003 - CAPITALISM DROOPING
By Bill Bonner "…Success is self-correcting, we observe. Every bull eventually finds its bear. Every bubble eventually finds its pin. And every empire eventually finds its Vandals. In 1998, it may have been self-evident that American…"
06/18/2003 - THE ROARING 2000'S?
By John Mauldin "…There has been a small bump on the road to the Roaring 2000s. Dent tells us that has merely slowed things down, but now we are back on track. Starting with this year and going into 2004, the consumer is coming back."
06/17/2003 - DIGITAL MONGOLIA
By Jim Rogers "…Outer Mongolia is now a name almost synonymous with the word 'backwater,' evocative of the remote, the retrograde, the unimproved. Yet Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia, is perhaps the most technologically up-to-date…"
06/16/2003 - PREVENTING SPEED DEFLATION
By The Mogambo Guru "…As Greenspan has said, he cannot see a bubble, either as it is forming or after it has formed, and therefore does not fear a bubble in anything, but that as soon as that bubble-that-cannot-be-seen starts to deflate…"
06/13/2003 - SHOCK AND AWE
By Bill Bonner "…the most astonishing thing about this mad investment world is neither the extremity of the U.S. financial condition, nor the absurdity of the official response. Perhaps at no time in the past has the U.S. balance sheet…"
06/12/2003 - TRADITIONAL VALUES
By Bill Bonner "…Traditions do not arise in the course of a single generation. What makes them valuable is that they develop little by little, wrought by heat and cold, beaten into a serviceable shape by countless pounding over many…"
06/11/2003 - NO RESPECT
By John Myers "…America is rapidly running out of oil and gas reserves. But Canada is loaded with the stuff. A rapidly expanding pipeline network will facilitate oil and gas deliveries from Canada's distant fields to an energy-thirsty U.S."
06/11/2003 - VIPERS AND THIEVES
By Addison Wiggin "…It is in the spirit of the 'beer google' in which we offer today's observation. Not that we agree with the litany of conspiracy sites on which we've discovered the legendary tirades of Louis McFadden…"
06/09/2003 - MALINVESTMENT, THRIFTLESSNESS & SPECULATION
By The Mogambo Guru "…Inflation comes from the idea, both back then and right freakin' now, according to the jackasses at the Fed, in the Congress, on Wall Street and every damn where you turn, that monetary inflation was a good thing…"
06/08/2003 - HOW TO STAY OUT OF TROUBLE
By Addison Wiggin "…We don't trust anything we don't have personal experience of… and even then, we have our doubts. It's not a position we choose without reflection; but with humility."
06/06/2003 - MIA'S WEDDING
By Bill Bonner "…At some point, a man has to stop thinking. He has to stop because no amount of thinking can get him where he needs to go - such as, to the altar. Getting married is not a rational act, it is a desperate one…"
06/05/2003 - SCREW THE LIMIT
By Bill Bonner "…Over this 36-year investment life span, in other words, neither shares nor bonds defeated risk. Perhaps we need to think more long-term. But if you can look seriously at an investment term that exceeds the human life…"
06/04/2003 - BUBBLE REVISITED
By Eric Fry "…Generally speaking, yield spreads narrow ('tighten') during strong economic times and widen during recessionary times. Lately, yield spreads have been tightening."
06/03/2003 - LIGHTER THAN AIR
By Eric Fry "…In the case of bond yields, bigger is not always better, especially when bigger isn't all that big. But when markets are rising, investors tend to buy first and ask questions later. In other words, bond buyers…"
06/03/2003 - SOCIAL MOVEMENT
Addison Wiggin "…As well-intentioned and brilliant as the idea may have appeared at its outset, the welfare state - the promise Western governments made to care for their citizens from cradle to grave - is fast running out of time…and money."
06/02/2003 - SOMETHING UGLY THIS WAY COMES
By The Mogambo Guru "…Watching Greenspan addressing the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, I constantly interrupt myself by vacillating between gagging in revulsion and laughing hysterically at what is being said…"
06/01/2003 - DEBT DEFLATION, GODZILLA-STYLE
By Addison Wiggin "…In other words, a banking crisis of Godzilla-like proportions - and credit contraction across the board despite the best intentions of Greenspan and his merry band of printers."
05/30/2003 - SNOW JOB, II
By Bill Bonner "…In addition to bankruptcies and unemployment, business profits as a percentage of GDP have fallen to their lowest level in about 40 years. No mention of this has been made by either the Treasury secretary or the Fed chief."
05/29/2003 - MOVING THE GOAL POSTS
By Eric J. Fry "…We will not quarrel with the possible merit of deferring pension plan contributions. But we will point out that deferring the Day of Reckoning does not eliminate it."
05/28/2003 - THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY PART II
By Frank Giustra "…Regardless how it plays out, there is one thing for sure. The world is dangerously awash with U.S. dollars. The downward trend began two years ago and is very much intact."
05/27/2003 - THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY
By Frank Giustra "…There is no doubt that currently America is the most dominant economic and military power on earth. Although the world has seen many great powers come and go, including the Spaniards, the French and the British…"
05/26/2003 - MORAL HAZARD, IMPUTED INCOME AND THE "GNAB GIB"
By The Mogambo Guru "….In the usual meaning of the term Big Bang, it means that the universe has collapsed onto itself, and squeezed everything into one tiny, dimensionless dot, and then there was an explosion outward…"
05/23/2003 - SNOW JOB
By Bill Bonner "…There was a time when America had honest money. Both the Gold Standard and the Bretton Woods agreement required nations to settle their debts in real money --- number 79 on the periodic table…"
05/22/2003 - THE IDEA OF AMERICA
By Bill Bonner "…America…is a nation of people who chose to become Americans. And where did its government, its courts, its businesses and saloons come from? They were all invented by us. Having chosen the country…"
05/21/2003 - AMERICA'S OIL CRUNCH
By John Myers "…The recent bombing in Saudi Arabia underscores just how shaky the Mid East region is - an area that holds two-thirds of the world's oil. And while America's occupation of Iraq may have given Wall Street a temporary high…"
05/20/2003 - THE WORLD'S BEST CAPITALISTS
By Jim Rogers "…'This is history being made,' I said, in voice-over as I purchased my shares. 'This is the way American stock markets evolved over two hundred years ago. Someday I'm going to invest a whole lot of money in China…"
05/19/2003 - THE AMERICAN SYNDROME
By Bill Bonner "…The result [of Roosevelt & Co.'s actions] - much disputed by economists - was probably to turn a short, swift market break into the biggest economic disaster of the industrial age…and to burden American society…"
05/17/2003 - FREEDOM PRESS
By Addison Wiggin "…Not that the Bush administration has been knocking down our door for input recently, but here we offer some gratuitous advice anyway: If you're serious about wanting to build a free-market economy you need movers…"
05/16/2003 - GLOBALIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS
By Bill Bonner "…As in Argentina a few years ago, for every dollar's worth of goods and services America sells overseas, nearly two dollars of imports come into the nation's ports."
05/15/2003 - ARTIFICIAL HIGH
By John Mauldin "…Until the rest of the world and especially Asia can wean themselves from dependence upon the American consumer - [or the U.S. consumer gets tapped out] - the dollar will remain artificially high."
05/14/2003 - DEBASING
By Andrew Kashdan "…With all due respects to our friends in Paris, let me say this: not only is the risk of a protracted Japan-style deflation overblown, but so too is the prospect of any significant disinflation from here."
05/13/2003 - PERFIDY PAYS THE PRICE
By James Davidson "…Notwithstanding the stark evidence of [U.S.] success [in the war in Iraq], the anti-war core of the Democratic Party in the U.S. continues to oppose the war and criticize U.S. aims in cleaning up Iraq."
05/12/2003 - VICTORY PROCLAIMED
By Doug Casey "…I don't know how [the conflict in Iraq] will end, any more than does Bush or Rumsfeld. But my prediction is: badly. Timing is the real question in my mind, although even that is not so terribly critical."
05/09/2003 - SENTIMENTAL LESSONS
By Bill Bonner "…What Europe learned from WWI and WWII was not to do that again. This was not so much an intellectual lesson as a sentimental one. Those who lived though the wars…the occupations…the uniforms…"
05/08/2003 - VICTORY IN EUROPE DAY
By Bill Bonner "…On this day, 58 years ago, Paris celebrated the end of the most costly, brutal, maniacal episode of warfare in history - WWII. People danced in the streets…bands played…the bells of St. Merry's, next to my office…"
05/07/2003 - PROFIT PIPELINE
By John Myers "…America's natural gas self-sufficiency would be comforting…if it were sustainable. The problem is, gas is becoming increasingly difficult to find in the "lower 48." Compounding the supply problem…"
05/06/2003 - WHEN GOLD'S DAY COMES
By Steve Sjuggerud "…The two major U.S. indices are the "XAU" Index and the "Gold BUGS Index." One is up about 100% since the beginning of 2002, while the other is up only 20%. What's going on? Why should we even care?"
05/05/2003 - CORPORATE SELF-MUTILATION
By Kurt Richebächer "…To create wealth through rising asset prices is the one great fallacy and folly in America's shareholder value model. To create business profits through mergers and acquisitions and cost-cutting is the other big fallacy…"
05/03/2003 - WAITING FOR A METAPHOR CHANGE
By Addison Wiggin "…If this period of 'stagnation' assumes its position as the new metaphor… the lens through which governments and investors see the future… 'the entire global system of free trade," suggests Kaletsky…"
05/02/2003 - THE WORLD HE LIVES IN
By Bill Bonner "…Americans' can-do optimism seems to depend on the ability of its central bankers to do what the Japanese could not - successfully wage war on deflation. If only there were not so many paradoxes, dear reader."
05/01/2003 - MAY DAY, MAY DAY
By Bill Bonner "…May 1 is the big day for the proletariat. Back when people still believed Marx's class theory - that is, back when there was a proletariat - huge parades were organized throughout much of the world."
04/30/2003 - BLIND FAITH
By Eric Fry "…The recent rally on Wall Street has been a classic triumph of faith over fact…of hope over substance. No stock better exemplifies misguided faith at work than Dow component General Motors…"
04/29/2003 - INFECTIOUS PESTS
By Marc Faber "…I am not suggesting that the current SARS scare will have a long-lasting and major impact on the global economy, but if this highly infectious disease spreads unchecked, or if another even more virulent…"
04/28/2003 - YANKS, FROGS AND WINE SPECULATORS
By Chris DeHaemer "…As France-bashing spilled from late-night comedy shows across the United States following the French government's theoretical 'support' for Saddam Hussein's Iraq, France's wine exports to the U.S. fell noticeably in March."